The 2022 Recession Survey

Caproasia Institute conducted a survey on recession with leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices.  A total of 147 respondents worldwide participated in the survey over 3 weeks (4th Oct to 26th Oct 2022).  The 2022 Recession Survey asked respondents on their view of a recession in 2022/2023 and if they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities.  Respondents also provided their expected returns on their assets, investments & portfolio over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023.  The 147 respondents comes from 27 countries.  71.4% are from APAC, 16.3% from Europe, 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai) and 9.5% from Americas.  53% of the respondents are from Singapore (34%) & Hong Kong (19%).

51.02% of respondents manage $3 million to $100 million, 19.04% manage $100 million to $1 billion, 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion, 1.36% manage more than $100 billion, 16.33% of respondents indirectly manage assets or advise clients, 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size.

The Survey:

1. Views of a recession in 2022/2023
2. If they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities
3. Expected returns over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023

Portfolio Size / AUM:

• 51.02% of respondents manage $3 million to $100 million
• 19.04% manage $100 million to $1 billion
• 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion
• 1.36% manage more than $100 billion
• 16.33% of respondents indirectly manage assets or advise clients
• 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size

Portfolio Size / AUM: Breakdown

• $3 million to $20 million – 37.41%
• $20 million to $100 million – 13.61%
• $100 million to $300 million – 9.52%
• $300 million to $1 billion – 9.52%
• $1 billion to $10 billion – 6.80%
• $10 billion to $30 billion – 3.40%
• $30 billion to $100 billion – 1.36%
• More than $100 billion – 1.36%
• Indirectly managing / advising – 16.33%
• Undisclosed – 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size

The Respondents

The 147 respondents come from 27 countries.  71.4% are from APAC, 16.3% from Europe, 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai) and 9.5% from Americas.  53% of the respondents are from Singapore (34%) & Hong Kong (19%). 

• 71.4% are from Asia-Pacific
• 16.3% from Europe
• 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai)
• 9.5% from Americas.

27 Countries:

• Asia-Pacific – Singapore, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand
• Europe – United Kingdom, Switzerland, France, Spain, Russia, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Czech Republic, Morocco, Turkey
• Middle East – Dubai
• Americas – United States, Canada, Argentina, Venezuela

The 2022 Recession Survey

Caproasia Institute conducted a survey on recession with leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices.  A total of 147 respondents worldwide participated in the survey over 3 weeks (4th Oct to 26th Oct 2022).   The Survey:

1. Views of a recession in 2022/2023
2. If they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities
3. Expected returns over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023

Key Findings

• We have a Recession – 83.66% view that we are already in a recession or will have a recession.  
• Already in a Recession – 29.25% view that we are already in a recession, data in next few months will show, due to data lag.
• 6 months to 1 year Recession – 31.97% view that we will have a short & mild recession, that will last around 6 months to 1 year
• On Investment – 78.23% have taken actions, preparing, getting cautious, or ready for investment opportunities.
• On Expected Returns –  67.2% are expecting positive returns ranging from 1% to more than 50% of portfolio gains

Larger Portfolio Insights (More than $1 billion):

• No Recession – Slightly more larger portfolio investors view that we will not have a recession (21% vs 9.52% overall)
• Committed Position Actions on Recession – Larger portfolio (> $1 billion) have taken a slightly more committed stance on recession (Yes, No), and thus larger portfolio have taken more portfolio actions to either increase investments, or decrease investments.  
• Getting Cautious – None of larger portfolio responded with “Getting Cautious” compared to 147 respondents of 14.29%
• Higher Returns & Larger Losses – Larger portfolio expect higher returns, and larger losses compared to all 147 respondents.  Notably, 0% expect minimal change to portfolio, compared to 8.16% of overall 147 respondents

Larger Portfolio: 

• 19 of 147 respondents manage more than $1 billion
• 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion
• 1.36% manage more than $100 billion

The 2022 Recession Survey Summary

1) On a Recession in 2022/2023

• 83.66% view that we are already in a recession or will have a recession.  
• 29.25% view that we are already in a recession, and data in next few months will show, due to data lag.
• 31.97% view that we will have a short & mild recession, that will last around 6 months to 1 year
• 12.24% view that we will have a mid-to-long term recession, lasting 1 to 5 years
• 10.20% view that something will trigger a major crisis that will cause a severe recession (Eg. 2008 Subprime, 1997 Asian Currency Crisis)

Larger Portfolio Insights  (More than $1 billion): 

Overall, versus small portfolio, slightly more larger portfolio investors view that we will not have a recession (21% vs 9.52%).

2) De-risk investments, &/or ready for investment opportunities?

• 78.23% of respondents have taken actions, preparing, getting cautious, or ready for investment opportunities. 
• Only 21.77% of respondents have not, are not, or will not take any actions.

Larger Portfolio Insights  (More than $1 billion): 

Overall, larger portfolio have taken a slightly more committed stance on recession (Yes, No), and thus larger portfolio have taken more portfolio actions to either increase investments, or decrease investments.  Also, 0% (None) of the larger portfolio responded with “Getting Cautious” compared to overall 147 respondents of 14.29%.

3) Expected Returns on Investments (1 Year, End 2023)

• 67.2% of respondents are expecting positive returns ranging from 1% to more than 50% of portfolio gains
• 21% expect positive returns of 20% or more of portfolio gains
• 24.2% expect negative returns (losses) ranging from -1% to more than 50% of portfolio losses

Larger Portfolio Insights (More than $1 billion):

Overall, larger portfolio expect higher returns, and larger losses compared to all 147 respondents, with 0% expecting minimal change to portfolio, compared to 8.16% of overall 147 respondents

Caproasia Institute

Caproasia Institute is the data and research institute of Caproasia, a financial information technology with the mission to drive the future of Asia through financial information & services.  Research is a lagging activity.  What you do with or without the research, agree or disagree with the research is a leading activity.  The art & science of research.  Imagination over evidence.  Actions over data.  Change over research.  Future over history.

Caproasia Financial Media covers capital markets, investments & private wealth in Asia. 

Caproasia is a financial information technology co. founded in 2014.  The mission is to drive the future of Asia.